Service Design Tools

SDT-Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a brainstorming method to visualize the cascading consequences of trends, events, or decisions. This technique helps teams think through primary, secondary, and tertiary impacts. It reveals both intended and unintended consequences in a systematic way.

Duration
1.5 hours
Group Size
4-8
Category
Service Design Tools
Difficulty
Easy
Energy
Medium

Objectives


  • Map direct and indirect consequences of changes or decisions.

  • Identify unintended effects.

  • Understand cascade effects through multiple orders of impact.

  • Build shared understanding of complex implications.

  • Support informed decision-making.

Outcomes


  • Completed futures wheel.

  • Mapped implications.

  • Understood cascading effects.

Step-by-Step Instructions


  1. Define Central Node (10 min): Place the trend, event, or decision in the center. Ensure it is clear and specific. All participants must share the same understanding.

  2. First-Order Consequences (20 min): Brainstorm direct, immediate impacts. Draw these as spokes from the center. Aim for 6-10 primary consequences. Include positive and negative impacts.

  3. Second-Order Consequences (25 min): For each first-order impact, identify consequences. Add these as secondary spokes. Look for cross-connections between branches. Consider different stakeholder perspectives.

  4. Third-Order Consequences (20 min): Continue outward for significant branches. Focus on the most important or surprising chains. Identify potential feedback to the center.

  5. Analysis and Patterns (15 min): Color-code by impact type (social, economic, environmental, etc.). Identify reinforcing loops. Mark critical uncertainties. Highlight unexpected consequences.

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Facilitator Tips

Keep consequences specific. Encourage wild ideas early on. Use "What happens next?" prompts. Rotate who adds consequences to maintain energy. Are consequences logically connected? Have we considered multiple stakeholders? Have we included social, technical, economic, environmental, and political dimensions? For virtual sessions, use mind mapping software like Miro or Mural. Assign branches to breakout groups. Use different colors for each participant's contributions. I've found it tricky to get people to think beyond the obvious - give them time!

Pre-Work

For Facilitators

  • Review participant profiles and expectations
  • Prepare all materials and supplies
  • Test technology and room setup

For Participants

  • Complete pre-session survey
  • Review background materials
  • Prepare examples or case studies

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Materials Required


  • Large paper or whiteboard (minimum 3x4 feet).

  • Multiple colored markers.

  • Sticky notes.

  • Camera.

  • Reference materials on the central topic.

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Resources & Templates

  • Facilitator Guide (PDF)
  • Participant Workbook Template
  • Presentation Slides
  • Printable Materials

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